Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 23.239385 27.824101 32.851530 38.744586 45.432888 52.757889 61.355862
2025-08-24 16.297863 22.265911 29.466552 38.665795 49.969364 63.266121 79.940601
2025-08-31 11.859212 18.109260 26.265075 37.412347 51.953211 69.968355 93.633771
2025-09-07 9.569266 16.062038 25.104061 38.148745 55.971670 78.933613 110.147150
2025-09-14 7.480084 13.797589 23.172030 37.404954 57.698227 84.778477 122.718426
2025-09-21 6.306583 12.641236 22.570159 38.304376 61.534757 93.421796 139.174153
2025-09-28 4.820656 10.647697 20.370794 36.529752 61.309039 96.361979 147.933715
2025-10-05 4.215841 10.048619 20.260693 37.847824 65.577558 105.665909 165.708798
2025-10-12 3.645587 9.387501 19.933656 38.737596 69.185899 114.117587 182.547969
2025-10-19 3.140971 8.742623 19.529721 39.419730 72.452675 122.147552 199.016907
2025-10-26 2.752311 8.253016 19.327071 40.386516 76.173290 130.948715 216.852778
2025-11-02 2.267075 7.427835 18.370159 39.925767 77.512474 136.157082 229.535774
2025-11-09 1.901797 6.830944 17.846273 40.317674 80.499239 144.362098 247.534284
2025-11-16 1.549510 6.166230 17.090705 40.220440 82.680885 151.466237 264.251428
2025-11-23 1.181832 5.320966 15.793580 38.926559 82.661859 155.023355 275.614871
2025-11-30 1.005199 4.981644 15.565151 39.686014 86.274148 164.531456 296.463597
2025-12-07 0.782260 4.393332 14.641039 38.918852 87.047478 169.381173 310.116394
2025-12-14 0.672131 4.158297 14.540240 39.846516 90.969424 179.577059 332.532906
2025-12-21 0.482709 3.505538 13.230768 38.016024 89.561801 180.699847 340.378250
2025-12-28 0.426410 3.394097 13.359242 39.375646 94.326232 192.511396 365.881449
2026-01-04 0.365460 3.226939 13.299590 40.293286 98.263207 203.009992 389.498868
2026-01-11 0.308334 3.043345 13.156824 40.996689 101.799791 212.911786 412.374921
2026-01-18 0.265334 2.909684 13.140397 41.993480 105.965383 224.043377 437.563813